Following Sébastien Lecornu’s departure from the prime minister’s office, France has once again fallen into a domestic political crisis – originally published in Postimees on 8 October 2025.
- Lecornu’s resignation deepens divisions and creates a crisis of confidence.
- Uncertainty in Paris threatens important European initiatives and decisions.
- France’s political crisis affects the stability of the European Union.
France’s unstable domestic political situation could begin to affect the entire European Union, given France’s position in the union, writes Ambassador Clyde Kull.
On Monday morning this week, the French were drinking their morning coffee knowing that the new government announced the previous evening would be tackling the urgent budget issue facing the country that afternoon. However, in the middle of their pleasant coffee break, news of another political upheaval came like a bolt from the blue: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu submitted his resignation to the president just 27 days after taking office, making it the shortest-lived government in the history of the current Fifth Republic and exacerbating the country’s already tense political situation. This is an event that the French media is reporting as a shock and the international press as a possible turning point for both Paris and Europe as a whole.
What happened? The appointment of Lecornu, a former defense minister and close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as prime minister was the president’s latest attempt to stabilize the fragile broad-based coalition landscape after the 2024 snap elections, which left parliament divided and without a clear majority. After three weeks of consultations, the new prime minister announced the composition of his cabinet, which provoked sharp opposition from both his right-wing partners, the Republicans, and the opposition – there was no sign of change, with the government continuing with almost the same composition and the same political line. For the Republican coalition partners, the red flag was the inclusion in the cabinet of former Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who had generously distributed money to save the French economy during Covid, while for the left-wing parties, it was Lecornu’s insufficient concessions on social funding. The crisis escalated so quickly that Lecornu resigned from government before the new cabinet could take office.
Financial markets across Europe reacted immediately to the crisis: the CAC 40 stock market fell, French government bond yields rose, and the euro weakened. Investors perceive prolonged political uncertainty as a serious risk: France’s large budget deficit (nearly 6 percent of GDP) and growing public debt (around 115 percent of GDP – higher in Europe only than Italy and Greece) make any political misstep costly. The impact was felt both on the Paris financial markets (an immediate drop of 2% after the announcement) and in Brussels, where there is growing concern about France’s role in ensuring European stability.
The French media’s reaction has so far been mostly inward-looking. Traditional publications such as Le Monde emphasize the president’s difficulties in finding political stability and see the root of the problems in the institutional fragmentation of the country rather than in the actions of a single prime minister. Commentators point out that the current crisis is a direct consequence of the political division that emerged after the 2024 elections and Macron’s strategy of staying “in the middle,” which meant a lack of strong parliamentary support. Television channels and political observers also note that the opposition was deepened by the composition of the new government itself – the return of several well-known ministers created the impression that the promised renewal was simply replaced by “more of the same.” This may also have been a tactical ploy, as the presidential ambitions of Bruno Retailleau, the leader of the Republicans who was sidelined by the government and is now the Minister of the Interior, in the 2027 elections are an open secret.
Looking briefly at the broader foreign policy implications, the timing of the crisis is particularly noteworthy, as it coincides with challenges facing Europe, such as the tense security situation due to Russian aggression, war in the Middle East and Iran’s nuclear threats, aggressive trade policies by China and the US, not to mention the need for unity in ensuring European economic governance and competitiveness. Unfortunately, the continuing domestic political crisis may reduce Paris’s moral and practical capacity to promote various European initiatives, whether on the issue of Ukraine or on strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities.
Two main factors can be highlighted. First, political division and the inability to reach a consensus based on a parliamentary majority have made France a less predictable partner. This, in turn, reduces the country’s influence at the European level. If Paris is unable to present its views unequivocally and defend its interests, a vacuum will arise that others may fill. Such an imbalance would have a negative impact on decision-making processes and could potentially slow down critical decisions, including those concerning support packages for Ukraine and arms purchases. Second, economic pressure. High deficits and possible future credit rating tensions will force Paris to either adopt stricter budgetary constraints, which will inevitably lead to wider social unrest, or risk higher borrowing costs. Both scenarios are uncomfortable for the president and his successors.
What are the possible political and institutional developments in the near future? Typically, the president has three options in such a situation: (1) appoint a new prime minister (one option, for example, would be a technocrat who could enjoy broader parliamentary confidence), (2) dissolve the National Assembly and call new parliamentary elections, or (3) recognize the situation as so difficult that the president himself questions his position. Macron has so far ruled out the latter option and considers it unlikely to pass in parliament. Each option carries political risks: the technocrat may not receive sufficient support and would lack the legitimacy to make radical budgetary decisions; new parliamentary elections could lead to success for Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), paving the way for it to enter government and strengthen its position ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. The RN and the Republicans have been the most vocal advocates of extraordinary parliamentary elections, hoping to pick up votes from Macron’s crumbling party.
There is a serious risk that as the crisis drags on, the ground will become fertile for the spread of populism and extremism. There are forces on both the left and the right that are benefiting from the government’s paralysis and could gain support in the next elections if the central government remains divided. This development is being watched with concern throughout Europe, as France has been one of the driving forces behind European integration and a guarantor of stability.
At the same time, the current crisis also presents an opportunity. Macron and his team could use this moment to make a decisive turn, whether it be the formation of a technocratic government, a broad-based coalition based on compromise, or a cleverly timed election. However, this requires political courage and a clear message, which has been lacking so far. If Macron is unable to correct course in the near future, the question will no longer be just who and how France is governed, but also whether Europe will lose one of its main institutional and geopolitical pillars.
Key Takeaways
- Lecornu’s resignation ends the shortest government in France’s Fifth Republic.
- The crisis weakens Macron’s authority and France’s reliability in the EU.
- Financial markets reacted with lower confidence and market volatility.
- Rising populism and fragmentation threaten European decision-making.
- A technocratic solution or new elections may be Macron’s only exit options.
You can read the original article here: https://arvamus.postimees.ee/8338017/clyde-kull-prantsusmaa-on-kriisis-ja-euroopa-ei-pruugi-jaada-puutumata