The biggest challenge for Europe’s politicians is to convince voters that European elections matter at all. The post-election picture is going to be a varied and complex one, writes Clyde Kull in his opinion piece for ERR.ee.
Between 6 and 9 June nearly 450 million people in the 27 Member States will be able to vote for their candidates in the new supranational assembly of 720 MEPs, where Estonia has seven seats. It is one of the largest democratic elections in the world, second only to India.
So far, there have been a fair share of sceptical notes about the elections to the pan-European legislature. Europe may pride itself on its democratic traditions and guarantees, but it is difficult for the ordinary person to grasp the complexities of governance in the bloc.
In national or local elections, voters usually have a fairly clear idea of the role for which they are electing a candidate. The European Union, on the other hand, with its complex institutional structure and ever-expanding competences, is a vague and nebulous project for many voters.
The European Parliament has great power
It is safe to say that many European voters do not understand the difference between the European Commission and the Council of the European Union, and few have a clear understanding of the political groupings in the European Parliament, which operate in a similar way to the parties and political groups in national parliaments.
How many know the difference between Renew Europe and the European People’s Party? How many can even name the main groupings that shape the dynamics of the European Parliament, or the differences in their outlook and priorities?
Yet the European Parliament has great power in the Union. And as Europe continues to play an important economic and foreign policy role, the elections will have a significant impact not only on the people of Europe, but also on the rest of the world.
This is particularly true at a time when Europe is facing aggression from Russia and the forthcoming US presidential elections could bring major geopolitical changes, to name but two pivotal events in this turbulent year.
Unsurprisingly, according to a recent Euronews/Ipsos poll, the forecast for the future composition of the European Parliament mirrors the trends seen in the national elections across member states. Above all, an increase in support for the far-right is observed. In addition, polls showed a decline for the Greens and the Liberals, the market-friendly parties.
The most dramatic change was the projected increase in support for the Identity and Democracy Group, a far-right Eurosceptic bloc including Germany’s AfD, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang and France’s Rassemblement National, among others. It currently has 59 seats, but is predicted to win 81, a 37% increase.
However, despite the rise of the right and the corresponding decline of the Greens and the centre-right Renew Europe, it looks as if the majority of seats in the new 720-seat parliament will remain in the hands of centrist or centre-right pro-European groups. The conservative European People’s Party (EPP) is expected to retain the largest number of seats, ensuring continuity of EU policies and personalities.
The above mentioned survey provides a good insight into voters’ concerns and priorities.
Respondents to the poll focused sharply on economic issues. Of the five main issues highlighted, four were related to the economy, with inflation and inequality being the top concerns, followed by unemployment and economic growth. Illegal immigration was the only issue not directly linked to the economy. The sixth was the fight against climate change.
The sharp fall in inflation has had little impact on concerns about rising prices. Inflation in the euro area has fallen from 10.6% in 2022 to 2.6% today. But this does not mean that prices have fallen, only that the rate of price rises has fallen, so the issue remains a significant political driver.
Interestingly, among the people who say inflation is their top priority, those who say they intend to vote right were the most likely to do so. This is useful to bear in mind during the campaign as potentially support for the radical right could become more modest if the cost of living crisis continues to recede.
Coordinated action in times of crisis is necessary
The ongoing debate in the member states shows that competing political groups are each looking for answers to the worrying economic situation through their own ideological prism.
Centrist parties claim that their policies have been effective in bringing down prices, especially energy prices, which rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Left-wing parties have challenged this claim, calling for greater support for lower-income families struggling to cope with the rising cost of living.
The centre-left similarly focuses on the need to increase social protection, but as a way of reducing inequality, which was the second priority in the poll. Right-of-centre parties tend to emphasise the need to promote economic growth – the third priority – in order to improve the situation for all.
The biggest challenge for European politicians is to convince voters that elections matter at all.
Since the early days of the EU, elections to the European Parliament have suffered from modest voter turnout, consistently falling short of national turnout figures.
The 2024 elections will test the claim that the 2019 European elections, when turnout topped 50 per cent for the first time, were a turning point. Until then, elections that began in 1994 had consistently languished in the 20-30 per cent turnout range. The 2019 vote came after the Brexit referendum and amid tense negotiations between London and Brussels over the UK’s departure from the EU, which may have prompted a higher turnout than a show of support for the union.
The challenges facing Europe have only increased since then, be it the need for a more robust defence policy, a more independent industry or more manageable immigration. The coronal pandemic proved that concerted action in times of crisis is both necessary and useful.
A high turnout would be a blow to Eurosceptics. Ironically, this would be the case even if the beneficiaries of the poll numbers were the very groups that want to reduce the power and reach of the EU.
The picture that will emerge after the European elections will be varied and complex, nothing like the results of national elections. Its consequences will only become apparent in time, unlike many other elections this year, but in many ways these effects will be at least as important and certainly much wider.
Clyde Kull 